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McKinney Says Primary Polling Can’t Be Trusted

by Hugh McQuaid | Aug 5, 2014 5:30am
(16) Comments | Commenting has expired

CTNJ file photo

Sen. John McKinney

Polls have not been kind to Republican gubernatorial primary candidate John McKinney. But McKinney, who’s hoping for an upset next week, says no one expected Gov. Dannel P. Malloy to survive the 2010 primary.

McKinney was badly trailing his primary opponent, 2010 Republican nominee Tom Foley, in the last survey published by Quinnipiac University in May. Since then, he’s been ignored altogether by a pair of surveys published last week.

Republicans will head to the polls to pick their gubernatorial candidate on Aug. 12.

Asked about the polls at a press conference last week, McKinney said they are notoriously inaccurate in primary elections.

He pointed to Malloy — who was trailing his primary opponent Ned Lamont by 3 points just before winning the 2010 Democratic primary election — and former U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, whom Virginia primary voters handed an unexpected defeat in June.

“Four years ago, Gov. Malloy never led in any of the public opinion polls,” he said. “Eric Cantor’s internal polling showed him up over 20 points the day of the election and he got beat by over 10.”

McKinney said he sees momentum on the campaign trail.

“We’re excited that on primary day, with what is probably going to be a low turnout, we’re going to turn out our vote and win,” he said.

The Foley campaign has said its internal polling has suggested Foley is leading in the race by 20 points.

“We believe polling on both sides show that this race is not competitive,” Chris Cooper, a spokesman for the campaign, said.

Foley lost to Malloy in 2010 by only 6,404 votes. Most polling data since then has suggested that voters are still pretty evenly split between Foley and Malloy. The most recent poll, conducted by Republican firm Vox Populi Polling, found Malloy up by 1 point, leading Foley 35 to 34 percent.

An Internet poll conducted by a research firm called YouGov and published by the New York Times last week suggested Foley was ahead of Malloy 42 to 33 percent.

In the May Quinnipiac University poll, Malloy and Foley were deadlocked 43 percent each. The poll showed McKinney trailing Malloy by four points.

At the time the poll was conducted, there were six Republican candidates vying for the nomination and Foley easily led the pack with 39 percent of Republican primary voters surveyed. McKinney trailed with only 8 percent. No public poll has been conducted since the Republican contest narrowed to only Foley and McKinney.

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(16) Comments

posted by: shinningstars122 | August 5, 2014  5:53am

shinningstars122

You have to hand it to McKinney as he has been non stop in getting his message out.

It was not until last night that Foley, believe it or not, introduced his first TV commercial in which he actually talks about his policy platform, which compared to McKinney’s, is a vague as they come.

Walker did OK on FTS on Sunday…he did come across as a stodgy martini drinking Republican.

He fares much better in the TV ads.

Bacchiochi and Somers had much stronger performances but the animosity between the two was far from palatable…they despise each other.

I am looking forward to being pleasantly surprised next Tuesday as you see a divided GOP battle it out.

posted by: DrHunterSThompson | August 5, 2014  7:42am

DrHunterSThompson

He may be right, Foley has not talked to us about one issue yet and has proven over and over that he doesn’t have even one small clue about what a governor does. He insulted a first selectman and hourly workers in Sprague. He is no better a candidate than a rock from good Doctor’s garden.

I’m voting for McKinney, early and often! Yeehaw! We are back, fire up a fatty!

HST

posted by: Commuter | August 5, 2014  7:52am

He’s right. Polling in the primary phase is worthless. Opinion samples don’t accurately reflect turnout.

posted by: dano860 | August 5, 2014  9:54am

Correct Dr. HST, that Foley incident in Sprague left a sour taste with me. His staff sure let him down on that one.
Adds like these aren’t aimed at us, they target the L.I.V. Those folks that, more than likely, will color the dots on their “I always vote this party” line.
My comment to any politician has always been, “You don’t need to convince the party faithful, you need to convince the un-affiliated fence sitter and make them want to vote for you.” Of course getting them to the polls is another story.
True Foley’s first add was all about being a nice guy but he won’t be standing next to me if or when I get sick.
The latest is still light on information about his policies.
John is accurate, as far as I’m concerned, about the polling. Especially when you are not included.
He still has a big hill to climb for my vote, the mid-night attack on my Constitutional rights was beyond the real action required. When we can be so unjustly trampled upon without any input from the constituents, even in a representative government, we are dancing on thin ice.
Is the car the problem in an accident caused by a drunk driver?

posted by: Joebigjoe | August 5, 2014  10:13am

I still want to know why Walker is not running for Governor. Party politics? He’s the best candidate. Fiscal knowledge is second to none and an A rating from the NRA.

I’d like to see him take on Malloy and rip him to shreds about the state of our state and what needs to be done to fix it.

posted by: bob8/57 | August 5, 2014  10:33am

bob8/57

I particularly liked where McKinney compares the work of professional pollsters to a candidate’s internal polling. It’s early for any candidate to be doing the old apples to oranges shuffle. Maybe he can scrape up the remains and make marmalade. He’s already toast.

posted by: GBear423 | August 5, 2014  11:56am

GBear423

I think I am going to hurl the next time I have to read tom foley was beaten by 6,404 votes, Crying out loud I know the figure without looking it up…  /head desk x20

Agree with JBJ, Walker should have made a go at Governor. Would have clinched the conservatives easily, and gives a solid confidence he can handle himself in front of scary and intimidating 1st Selectpersons.

posted by: DrHunterSThompson | August 5, 2014  5:38pm

DrHunterSThompson

Dano, i appreciate your opinion and although i don’t necessarily disagree, none of us should be voting just one issue.  listen, every single politician was in a tough spot when it came to the gun law.  is it bad, yup.  will it prevent another incident, nope.  we all know that - but it is what it is.  let’s move on and chip away at it.

walker would not have been a good Governor choice GBear, joebiggie. the truth in nearly every election is that the left votes left, the right votes right, and the winner is decided by those in the middle.  the middle would never vote Walker, just like i don’t believe they will vote Foley - he hasn’t given them anything to vote for, i predict the Guv is reelected by a safe margin.

HST

posted by: dano860 | August 5, 2014  10:52pm

Dr. HST, correct again, I have said in past posts that the entire record of a candidate has to be the bell weather.
I also stated, over a month ago, that I too believe Dannel will reign supreme.

posted by: Politijoe | August 6, 2014  6:48am

Politijoe

Drhunter I agree, the middle would never vote for Walker and I too believe Malloy will most likely be relected and certainly will be if the Republican candidate is that out-of-touch millionaire in an empty suit Foley. McKinney has ideas, vision, context and perspective unfortunately what he lacks is funding.

posted by: Joebigjoe | August 6, 2014  7:39am

Why would the middle not vote for Walker?

He sounded the alarm on our US debt even before Obama was elected the first time and was 100% right on where it would be and how it would affect our country.

If the middle rejects that we’re screwed.

posted by: Durham68 | August 6, 2014  12:02pm

Foley may not win the middle, but McKinney already lost too much of the right. McKinney’s cheer-leading for the gun law guaranteed a small army of one-issue republican voters anytime he runs for office. Unless by some miracle he can steal some votes on the left, McKinney cannot win the general election.

posted by: Bethy | August 6, 2014  2:06pm

Bethy

he can’t be trusted either!

posted by: GBear423 | August 6, 2014  2:29pm

GBear423

@Joebigjoe- ya, we’re screwed. The electorate here will never shock me again. After 2010 the entire nation, sans Connecticut, went red in some measure.
McKinney has the SB1160 albatross slung around the neck, but he also has years in a state legislature that has put Connecticut into this mess. He is also from a legacy, the career politicians are really cherished in CT. considering the state of affairs, maybe they shouldn’t be.

posted by: Politijoe | August 6, 2014  3:14pm

Politijoe

Durham68 you exactly summed up my point on why Malloy will be re-elected. Bigjoe your limited thinking is nothing if not consistent.

posted by: art vandelay | August 6, 2014  11:38pm

art vandelay

The long term forecast for next Tuesday is bright and sunny.  The air outside will be clear and fresh.  Inside the voting booth, air however will have a pungent oder and smell. I’ll be taking a deep breath before I enter and hold my nose with one hand and casting my ballot with the other.  It will be a tricky task.  My vote will probably go to McKinney. I can’t warm up to Foley.  I watch him in the news and on the Sunday talk circuit.  He’s pathetic and has no direction.  I know one thing for certain however.  The sun will be shining and the air will be fresh when I walk out of the room.