Poll Shows Foley Closing In On Malloy; Malloy Camp Dismisses Results
(Updated 10:19 a.m.) Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dan Malloy’s nine point lead has been cut down to three in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, which shows Malloy with 45 percent of the vote and Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Foley with 42 percent.
Three points is within the margin of error, which makes the race “too close to call,” according to Quinnipiac University Poll Director Doug Schwartz. Malloy held a 50 to 41 percent lead in a Sept. 15 poll.
Yesterday’s poll on the U.S. Senate race also had Republican Linda McMahon within three points of Democrat Richard Blumenthal.
“We pay no attention to these polls. This is the same poll that had us down 3 points the day before the primary—a race Dan won by 14,” Roy Occhiogrosso, a Malloy campaign consultant, said Wednesday morning.
Of the 1,083 voters surveyed in the latest poll, 12 percent still are undecided and 22 percent of those who named a candidate say they might still change their mind by Election Day.
Schwartz said in both today’s poll and yesterday’s, 26 percent of the respondents were Republicans, 31 percent Democrats, 37 percent Independents, and five percent identified themselves as belonging to another party. He said the poll is not weighted by party identification.
But the poll shows Independents breaking toward Foley 44 percent to 38 percent.
“Ever since the popular Republican Governor Jodi Rell decided not to seek re-election, Democrats have been very excited about their prospects of winning this open seat in blue Connecticut,” Schwartz said. “Yet despite a bruising primary victory, Republican businessman Tom Foley has made this a very tight race with Democrat Dan Malloy.”
Voters who say they are “angry” with state government support Foley 60 percent to 29 percent.
“Like Republican U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon, Foley has been capitalizing on the anti-government feeling. Also, both McMahon and Foley have been gaining due to the support of independent voters,” Schwartz added.
Not unlike the Senate race, there is a big gender gap with women backing Malloy and men backing Foley. Women back the Democrat 52 – 34 percent while men back the Republican 49 – 38 percent.
Analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com is predicting a Malloy victory in November. He gives Malloy an 86.7 percent chance of winning and says that unlike the Quinnipiac University poll, the race for governor is not tracking closely with the U.S. Senate race.
This story will be updated with a live stream of the 10 a.m. press conference.