ANALYSIS | Map Shows Obama, Murphy, City Voters Saving Esty
by Susan Bigelow | Nov 9, 2012 9:32am
(9) Comments | Commenting has expired
Posted to: Congress, Election 2012, Opinion
Click to enlarge map
In 2011, it was clear that Republicans would need “a perfect storm of factors” to take the 5th District back: a weak Obama running against a popular GOP presidential nominee, an appealing moderate as their candidate, and an uninspiring, flawed Democrat to run against. Andrew Roraback had two out of the three, and it wasn’t enough.
Elizabeth Esty shouldn’t have won this race. Roraback seemed tailor-made for the 5th, a Republican in the mold of old-school moderates like Nancy Johnson and Stewart McKinney. He’s well-liked in his northwest corner state senate district and had emerged victorious from a bitter primary fight against several far more conservative Republicans. Esty, on the other hand, only floated to the top after the seemingly unstoppable campaign of outgoing House Speaker Christopher Donovan was severely wounded by a campaign finance scandal. Esty, a relative unknown, had only served one term in the legislature before being defeated for re-election in 2010. The Democratic Party base never warmed to her, and she had trouble generating enthusiasm for her campaign.
Fortunately for Esty, the weakness of the top of the Republican ticket, especially with women, and with a district that is increasingly difficult terrain for the GOP, combined to drag down Roraback. The map of the election, broken down by margin of victory in each town, illustrates what happened.
The map shows a district that is more Republican now than it’s been since 2004, but also a district where it was next to impossible for a Republican to have won in 2012. Strong margins for Democrats in the cities and a few larger towns like Cheshire, coupled with a weaker-than-expected performance by Roraback in both the Farmington Valley and his northwest Connecticut home region, allowed Esty to come away with a narrow but convincing win on Election Night.
The Farmington Valley went strongly for Chris Murphy in all of his elections, but reverted somewhat to its old Republican default this year. However, the swing wasn’t decisive enough to offset Democratic votes elsewhere. Roraback’s margins in the vote-rich towns of Canton and Farmington were too narrow to make up for huge Esty margins in the cities.
Esty also did better than expected in the northwest corner; Roraback only managed decisive wins in North Canaan, Goshen, and Canaan. Certainly the presidential election helped to boost Esty; large turnout in the cities of Meriden, New Britain, Waterbury and Danbury, all of which she won by thousands of votes, ultimately helped secure her victory.
Roraback certainly wasn’t helped by the candidates at the top of the GOP ticket. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came within a few hundred votes of carrying lightly-populated Litchfield County, but was far outpaced by President Barack Obama in the cities, offsetting any advantage that might have generated for Roraback. Another bumbling, overreaching campaign by Linda McMahon also hurt his chances. Women turned against McMahon in droves, much like they had during her previous candidacy in 2010.
All of this begs the question: if a moderate like Roraback can’t win here, is the 5th lost to Republicans? I doubt it. If this exact race had been run in 2010, Roraback likely would have won. GOP gubernatorial candidate Tomas C. Foley ran strongly in areas of the 5th that Roraback needed, like the Farmington Valley, and the electorate in that year was far less favorable to Democrats.
There’s nothing to suggest that the 5th won’t be competitive in 2014. Roraback hasn’t ruled out another run against Esty, and the landscape two years from now looks a lot bleaker for Democrats. Connecticut won’t have a senate or a presidential race to drive up votes, and an unpopular Democratic governor will be up for re-election. Incumbency will be a help to her, but Esty’s challenge over the next two years will be to shore up enough support among skeptical Democrats and independents in crucial regions like the Farmington Valley, the northwest corner, and the Danbury area to survive a potential Republican swamping.
Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.
Tags: 5th Congressional District, Andrew Roraback, Elizabeth Esty, Linda McMahon, map, Susan Bigelow, dh
(9) Comments
posted by: MGKW | November 10, 2012 11:55am
Susan,
You need to do a little more homework, Esty was notas unknown as you think, she had worked tirelessly in the district to be known, also Roraback is only known in the Northwest corner of the district…he did not do enough work to get known in other parts…also, the Tea party wing of the party and others do not trust him and therefore kept his margin of victory in Woodbury and other red towns down. In the end, Esty’s appeal in the cities turned them out. She will be more of a known quantity two years from now so not sure if Obama coattails will make a difference.
posted by: GoatBoyPHD | November 10, 2012 1:51pm
Plymouth and Kent are listed as Roraback at the SOTS web site and elsewhere. Roraback wins 32 out of 41 cities and towns yet still loses.
Esty won by 20,000 votes in New Britain, Waterbury and Danbury,
The issue is Latino voters and developing a Jack Kemp kind of urban business strategy that appeals to Hispanic voters and would ultimately benefit cities like Torrington too.
Jack partnered with Robert Garcia and Hispanic business leaders to deregulate and provide tax advantages for small startups and sole proprietorships in inner cities—AKA as Enterprise zones. Deregulate, fast track approval, and tax abatements for property improvements, training, mentoring, financing (small enterprise loans), etc.
Hopefully Andrew takes that away as the GOPs next mission—they need to begin partnering with Latino Business Leaders NOW! and start crafting and urban job creation and business strategy. The rest will fall in place.
posted by: Lawrence | November 10, 2012 9:23pm
Funny how Goatboy, Hannity and Coulter have only just now come to the realization that Latinos in America are important—NOT because they are human beings who have been discriminated against for decades, who have demonized by Republicans across the country, and who have been the target of dozens of new Republican laws and regulations designed to disenfranchise them—but becasue HOLY CRAP, THESE PEOPLE VOTE AND THEY VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS, WHAT ARE WE GONNA DO?????
This is the worst of the worst of the worst of the worst Republican shallowness. Completely predictable, and completely transparent.
And it wil be utterly, utterly useless.
Karma, you know. DEAL WITH IT,GOP.
posted by: Jim Waterbury | November 11, 2012 5:24pm
Please look at the precinct voting rolls rather than simply at a map. Esty had a greater margin in the 5th than Murphy did. While Obama may have driven turnout, Esty was not riding Murphy coattails, if anything, the opposite. Plus, if you’ve been out in the district in the last month (particularly if you’ve been around Waterbury, Cheshire, and Meriden), Esty had a huge number of volunteers canvassing. It is simply unfair to say that there was never enthusiasm for her campaign.
posted by: DrHunterSThompson | November 12, 2012 2:39pm
Esty over Roraback ........ we are a stupid bunch.
posted by: Reasonable | November 13, 2012 10:51am
Lawrence: Will you “and the followers of the donkey,” be so happy with Obamaism—four years from now?
posted by: Mansfield1 | November 13, 2012 3:55pm
Will I be happy with Obama in four years? Absolutely. I don’t want to be ruled by priests, fundamentalist reverends and billionaires who would be enabled by another Scalia, Alito or Thomas appointed to the Supreme Court. That alone makes it worthwhile.
posted by: Reasonable | November 13, 2012 8:38pm
Mansfield1: Where have you been? You have been ruled by Obama’s billionaire bosses for four years now, and another four more years coming around the corner. Obama was directed deficit outspend all U. S. president’s in our history.
Obama’s bosses are burying this country to oblivion. Keep your delusionary thinking that the Democratic Party won the election if it gives you some needed psychological satisfaction—however the United States of America is the loser.