OP-ED: Will Republican Wave Miss Connecticut?
by Heath W. Fahle | Sep 5, 2010 3:30am
(12) Comments | Commenting has expired
Posted to: Opinion
Polling information released by Gallup this week depicted a bleak electoral environment for Democratic candidates nationwide. According to a poll conducted August 23-29, 2010, the Republican Party has a 10 percent advantage on the generic ballot, the largest GOP spread in the history of the Gallup numbers. The lousy news for Democrats didn’t stop there.
The widely-respected Larry Sabato, the director at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, updated his November 2010 predictions with some surprising results. By his calculations, the GOP is on track to pick up eight governorships nationwide, eight or nine seats in the U.S. Senate, and a majority-making 47 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Will this apparent Republican wave carry Connecticut Republican candidates, like gubernatorial nominee Tom Foley and U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon to victory this November? Or will the wave, like Hurricane Earl, just miss the Nutmeg State?
So far, the data on the races is too sparse to reveal much, but it isn’t particularly encouraging for Connecticut Republicans. On August 16, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll of the post-primary environment and found that the GOP’s Foley, a former Ambassador to Ireland, trailed his Democratic opponent by a 33 percent - 48 percent margin. Polling from the same organization on August 13 showed that the U.S. Senate race was much closer, with Republican nominee Linda McMahon seven points behind Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
Connecticut has been susceptible to national trends in the past. The 1994 Republican wave, which swept a Republican majority into the U.S. House for the first time in decades, also narrowly propelled John G. Rowland to the front of a four candidate pack. In 1984, the Reagan landslide produced the first Republican majority in the State House of Representatives since Watergate.
But these national dynamics don’t seem to be translating to Connecticut at the moment. Connecticut’s gubernatorial race is one of just four contests nationwide listed as “Likely Dem Pickup” by RealClearPolitics. By contrast, 10 seats currently held by Democrats are expected to switch to Republican control. The same review has Connecticut’s Senate seat listed as the only “Lean Dem” seat in the nation while ranking seven as “Lean GOP.”
This unusual Democratic strength is grounded on a significant party registration advantage over state Republicans and a ticket of proven candidates. Whereas Republicans make up 20 percent of the statewide voters, 36 percent of voters are enrolled with the Democratic Party, making it far more difficult for a Republican to make the contests competitive. At the same time, Blumenthal has been the high vote-getter on the ballot every cycle since 1998 and former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy posted a surprisingly strong victory over Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary on Aug. 10.
This doesn’t mean that the Republicans should be counted out just yet. McMahon’s campaign for the U.S. Senate has been consistently grinding away at Blumenthal’s numbers over the course of the last several months while Blumenthal has stayed largely out of the limelight. In the governor’s race, Foley held off a strong challenge from Lt. Gov Mike Fedele at the end of the GOP primary contest and hasn’t yet engaged Malloy in the general.
In an interview this week, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour noted that, “There is a correlation that is not well recognized that very rarely do you get a new Republican Senator elected to replace a Democrat if the same day we lose the Governor’s race in that state.” Given this, the fates of McMahon and Foley, as well as the Connecticut GOP, seem tied not only to the national environment but also to each other’s hard work in the weeks ahead.
Heath W. Fahle is a policy analyst and consultant based in Manchester. His background in political campaigns includes work for former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons and the Connecticut Republican Party. He also is the principal of Revolutionary Strategies LLC, a website design and consulting firm. Learn more at www.heathwfahle.com.
(12) Comments
posted by: CT Jim | September 5, 2010 7:37am
Totally agree Lothar.
I believe if the groups that worked hard in 2008 do the same this year that so-called wave will miss CT and some other states too.
What some people are starting to figure out is the teabaggers are darn right crazy and most people don’t take election advice from some drunkin bike gang member in the local bar or some Republican running for a state rep seat talking about amending the US constitution.
Most people just see that as nutty.
It will be about turnout and aside from themselves who have been voting republican their whole lives teabaggers have very little to offer outside of a republican primary and even then they are at less than 50%.
Taking your talking points from Mitch McConnel and Jon Bohner doesnt get you a lot of votes in CT.
posted by: CT Jim | September 5, 2010 7:45am
Also Larry Sabato may be respected but he is a republican and does work for Fox News so come on Heath do you have some other people??
Also a lot of these races are in single digets and could easily turn to the incumbent in the last week if the ground game is right.
I have seen others that put the Senate at 4 the house at 32 and the Governors races at 4 Republican pick-ups. Hardly good ol Larrys optomistic assesment.
But I will admit those pollsters tend to work for democrats, but I guess they are just as respected as Larry.
Also the widely respected Q-poll was only off by 20 points from a poll released just 24 hours before the primary in August.
In 2008 the republicans quit. dont look for the democrats to do the same in 2010
Larry was also one of those guys that thought McCain could win in 08.
And I guess you are expecting the otherside to run and hide right Heath??
Think again.
posted by: ACR | September 5, 2010 11:25am
>>“Will Republicans Wave Miss Connecticut?”
Of course we’ll wave at Miss Connecticut.
As a matter of fact here’s a photo of Miss Connecticut riding with Ann Nyberg and you can clearly see folks in the background waving.
posted by: GoatBoyPHD | September 6, 2010 8:50am
Last week Voices for Children released a report based on CTs 9 labor market area (LMA).
The 3 worst performers this decade were Waterury, Torrington and Danbury—-all in Murphy’s district. The 5th is CTs most conservative District. The job loss is around 9.5% and no sign those jobs are coming back in construction, metal working and agriculture. That 9.5% is nearly twice the state average. The other Districts were at or below the State Average.
If the GOP loses the 5th its a call for State GOP Party reform. The dissatisfaction with the status quo is very high with the possible exception of the Avon/ Simsbury crowd and some wealthy NYC escapees who live deep in the Hills.
posted by: GoatBoyPHD | September 6, 2010 9:01am
Election Projection which is largely based on polling averages has it at 50 GOP Senators (+9) plus Lieberman, 218 in the House (+39) plus Blue Dogs, and 32 Governors (+8).
Rasmussen has Obama at his worst approval rating.
There’s no reason to believe this won’t be another 1994 type of year with some caveats: Obama will be gridlocked much like Bush was after the 1990 elections. The political divide is too great and the next two years will be spent posturing for 2012.
posted by: CT Jim | September 6, 2010 9:44am
Gaotee,
one thing you dont take into account is the Fact that Caliguiri in one form or another has presided over the job losses for Waterbury whether as a Alderman, acting mayor or state senator and has largley done nothing.
So it’s not whether he can win one for the GOP it’s whether he could do better than his opponent.
The answer to that is NO.
Are you telling me that the GOP puposely tanked the economy and puposely with held funds to get the economy back on track to win a congressional seat???
I actually believe they would throw their own children off a bridge to win so it doesn’t suprise me one bit.
That is why Caliguri will lose this race by double didgets.
besides he has some serious ethical problems which haven’t even been exposed yet which many people know about.
posted by: Todd Peterson | September 10, 2010 9:57pm
More slurs from CT Jim, what a surprise.
Murphy is in for the fight of his life this time in part because this time the Democrat brand is very degraded. He’ll be inclined to go very negative which would run counter to his contrived aw-shucks facade he’s lived off of. He has big union money though so he can’t be written off.
posted by: hawkeye | September 11, 2010 2:25pm
Todd Peterson:
I’m glad that I am not the only one, that recognizes CT Jim as a writer obcessed with making desparaging remarks, in his feeble attempt, to attempt to blot or stain, any political candidate, who happens to oppose a Democratic Party political candidate.
Unfortunately, he does not take a hint, to mellow down his nasty rhetoric.
posted by: CT Jim | September 12, 2010 7:33am
Hawky, I don’t have to take hints from right wing paid operatives. Isn’t your tea bag branch the ones that want to be strict constitutionalists? I could be as crude as they have been to our congressional delegation and to our Senator but that would only make me look like you the Toddman and the Vulcan
posted by: lothar | September 5, 2010 7:16am
The Republicans have done an excellent - albeit dishonest - job of vilifying the president. This is sadly what we do now in the U.S.
That said, Democrats have been hearing all the yammering from the far right but if they stop and remember for a moment they’ll realize that Obama is doing what they elected him to do. If there is a Republican groundswell on November, it won’t be because of any failure by Obama. It’ll be based on a giant, continuous campaign of fear and lies from Fox and Rush and the rest.
If all the content of the the right-wing hate programming on radio and TV could be quantified, it might amount to literally tens of billions of dollars of free, anti-Obama
advertising.
Nevertheless, high turnout will benefit Democrats.