U.S. Senate Race: ‘Too-Close-To-Call’
by Christine Stuart | Aug 28, 2012 7:07am
(11) Comments | Commenting has expired
Posted to: Congress, Election 2012
(Updated 11:20 a.m.) The latest Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters gives Republican Linda McMahon a slight edge over Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy.
The poll of 1,472 voters with a 2.6 percent margin of error shows 49 percent of voters support McMahon, the former wrestling CEO, while 46 percent support Murphy, the youthful congressman from the 5th District.
Quinnipiac Poll Director Doug Schwartz described the race as “too-close-to-call,” but pointed out that McMahon has been gaining with women voters, a group she struggled with in 2010.
“Her edge is due to her double-digit lead among independent voters and being close among women,” Schwartz said.
According to the poll, 47 percent of voters now have a favorable opinion of McMahon, while just 35 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
“McMahon’s 54 – 42 percent lead among men swamps Murphy’s small 50 – 46 percent lead among women,” Schwartz said. “McMahon leads 88 – 10 percent among Republicans and 55 – 40 percent among independent voters, while Murphy takes Democrats 82 – 16 percent.”
McMahon also leads among all income groups, except voters making $50,000 to $100,000 per year. Voters under 35 years old back Murphy 51 – 43 percent, while McMahon leads 54 – 42 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old. Voters over 55 are split 48 – 48 percent.
But there are still 32 percent voters who have not heard enough about Murphy to form an opinion. McMahon has been working hard since before the party primaries at defining Murphy by using his public hearing attendance record during his first term against him, painting him as an absentee politician. Murphy, who doesn’t have the deep pockets McMahon has, has been doing his best to convey that his voting record was 97 percent during that same time period.
“This was always going to be a tough race, and we don’t take anything for granted and neither should McMahon,” Taylor Lavender, Murphy’s spokeswoman, said. “She’s spent her whole career getting rich at the expense of her own employees and at the expense of Connecticut jobs. Now she’s dumped over $65 million into a marketing campaign to try to fool voters into thinking she’s something she’s not.”
McMahon’s position as former head of the WWE was viewed as a liability in her 2010 contest against Richard Blumenthal and even though she spent $50 million on that race she lost the race by more than 100,000 votes.
“McMahon has worked on her image in the last two years, and it shows,” Schwartz said. “Voters like her more now than they did when she faced Richard Blumenthal in 2010.”
Schwartz warned that this poll can’t be compared to previous ones because it’s the first poll of likely voters. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed were Republicans, 33 percent were Democrats, and 40 percent were Independents.
The same poll shows President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 52 percent to 45 percent.
The gender gap is yawning with women backing Obama 59 – 38 percent while men back Romney 53 – 45 percent. Independent voters are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama.
Schwartz opined that it may be difficult for Murphy to ride Obama’s coattails even though he has a 7-point lead against Romney.
“This smaller than expected margin for Obama could affect the Senate race.The Murphy campaign is hoping to benefit from Obama’s coattails, but right now they are not very long,” Schwartz said.
In June, “looking at registered voters Chris Murphy had a comfortable lead over McMahon,” Schwartz said. “The key is McMahon’s ability to reintroduce herself to Connecticut voters.”
She’s dominated the airwaves and the ads appear to be working, Schwartz said.
In the past McMahon has struggled with high negatives, Schwartz said.
“So she is doing better in favorability. Voters do like her more than they did in 2010.”
While he wouldn’t characterize Murphy’s campaign strategy, Schwartz did say, “whatever she’s doing is working.”
He said when asked if McMahon cares about the needs and problems of “people like you” 56 percent said “yes” and 35 percent said “no” which is an improvement over past polls of registered voters. Asked the same question about Murphy the response was 50 percent said “yes” and 36 percent said “no.”
He said Murphy’s campaign has to be hoping that Obama being at the top of the ticket will increase turnout amonger younger voters, minority voters, and voters who make between $50,000 and $100,000 a year.
Tags: chris murphy, U.S. Senate, Linda McMahon, 2012, Quinnipiac University, Doug Schwartz, poll
(11) Comments
posted by: kenneth_krayeske | August 28, 2012 9:14am
The worst part of this is that McMahon leads Murphy among people making less than $50,000.00 a year. Murphy must do a better job of communicating a narrative that McMahon’s GOP policies will not create more opportunities for rags-to-riches like hers. One wonders if McMahon is elected, what will her press availability be like? She is trying to get elected without accountability to the fourth estate. The whole thing is putrid and a further sign of the degradation of our democracy. We are watching McMahon buy a Senate seat for more than $100 million.
posted by: Wakewhenover | August 28, 2012 10:59am
This is a one party state. The MSM here in CT abhors the GOP. There will be no fair treatment of her by newspapers and TV.
Stop with the deflections About WWE and her money. It’s hers, you jealous leftists. She will vote to repeal Obamacare and Murphy will not.
That is enough for me. Stop demonizing her, or better yet keep doing it and alienating the voters.
posted by: jenand | August 28, 2012 2:50pm
I’m going to call Murphy headquarters and volunteer. Also - does MacMahon support the Republican Party Platform? It does take women’s rights back to the 1900’s. Is this about continuing the Bush tax cuts? Are these pro-MacM supporters the wives of 1%‘s?
posted by: CitizenCT | August 28, 2012 6:07pm
CT residents are figuring out that Murphy is a follower who doesn’t work too hard or accomplish anything. He collects $170K/year to skip hearings and copy Nancy Pelosi’s vote. Linda’s not perfect, but with her passion for the job, deserves a chance. At least Linda is spending her money campaigning. Taxpayers are paying Murphy to campaign. We deserve better than him.
posted by: Christopher55 | August 28, 2012 9:17pm
The people of this state need to wake up and put Linda in office. All Murphy will do…if he even shows up…will be to vote the way Pelosi tells him to vote.
posted by: gutbomb86 | August 28, 2012 11:30pm
@citizenCT - thanks for the load of garbage. Murphy may not have the money to saturate television with smear and innuendo like McMahon has been these past few months as she’s dodged reporters and all those tough, inconvenient questions, but he’s been a good congressman with an excellent voting record - a congressman who doesn’t waste his time in nonsense hearings during which Republicans bloviate. Murphy will be a good senator. At least we know he’s not going to try to overturn the healthcare law and send us backward. That much we know, and that’s all the reason we need to vote the guy into office. I will be voting for Chris Murphy.
posted by: CitizenCT | August 29, 2012 6:23am
gutbomb86, have you no clue? Name one piece of legislation in six years Murphy stood behind that went anywhere, just one. His voting record isn’t actually his, he just copies Nancy Pelosi. Murphy voted against increasing the debt ceiling instead preferring to send our nation into default. As recently as last month, Murphy was the only CT congressman to vote against the overwhelmingly approved Defense Appropriation act, critical for defense sector jobs in CT. If he understands jobs, why doesn’t he explain this vote? You obviously don’t realize it, but CT can be represented much better.
posted by: gutbomb86 | August 29, 2012 9:52am
@citizenCT - actually he voted against the defense bill twice because there was no timetable for withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan, which at the time appeared to be an open-ended nightmare. It no longer is the case, thankfully, and you can thank President Obama for that.
That said, Murphy’s votes against the defense bill were courageous any way you slice it. And Linda suggested a few months ago that she would be willing to consider closing the sub base here in CT. So now who’s full of it?
What’s difficult for Linda supporters to stomach is that their candidate has absolutely zero experience in politics and that she has no reason to run other than to protect her own bottom line with respect to taxes and her investments in pipelines, etc. No one spends $100 million trying to buy a senate seat because of civic duty. It’s a scam and you’ve bought it.
Worse yet, you’re trying to use Nancy Pelosi as a wedge when most of the people in CT love Nancy Pelosi and everything she stands for.
Aside from Murphy’s 97% voting attendance record, which is spectacular in every way, here are two things Murphy stands for - keeping the sub base open and the affordable health care act. Two simple things where Linda and the Republican Party have failed the test. Murphy’s got my vote.
posted by: Jesterr73 | August 29, 2012 11:20am
Given his committee attendance, the current odds are now 8-5 that Chris Murphy will even show up to campaign.
posted by: CitizenCT | August 29, 2012 1:25pm
Gutbomb, you’re right Murphy voted against the defense bill twice. Because he is out of touch, this jeopardizes jobs at major employers like Electric Boat and Pratt & Whitney. Courtney, DeLauro, Himes and Larson all voted for it, but not Murphy. Our other four representatives realized that CT jobs were more important than including a tentative, subject to change withdrawal calendar in the legislation. You seem comfortable having your representative carbon copy Nancy Pelosi. I’d rather see our representative represent the people of CT, not California. I expect my congressman to think for himself, not just blindly copy Nancy Pelosi. You’re also right that Linda has no political experience. That’s exactly what we need to replace out of touch politicians collecting salaries at taxpayer expense, and accomplishing absolutely nothing. CT can do much better than Chris Murphy, set your bar higher.
posted by: ALD | August 29, 2012 1:41pm
“Worse yet, you’re trying to use Nancy Pelosi as a wedge when most of the people in CT love Nancy Pelosi and everything she stands for.”
I suppose she might be a nice enough lady in CA. Personally, I just would rather have a different representative here in CT. I guess I am just one of the few here in CT that does not love her.
It’s time for a change here in CT.