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Poll Predicts Murphy Will Beat McMahon In November

by | Aug 1, 2012 2:00pm () Comments | Commenting has expired | Share
Posted to: Congress, Election 2012, Poll

Even though millions of dollars have been spent on campaign operations, mailers, and television advertisements, the latest poll on the U.S. Senate race in Connecticut offers almost the same results as it did a year ago.

The survey of 771 likely Connecticut voters released by Public Policy Polling Tuesday shows Democrat Chris Murphy beating Republican Linda McMahon in the November election 50 to 42 percent. A September 2011 poll of registered voters showed Murphy beating McMahon 50 to 43 percent.

Murphy also maintains support of 82 percent of his party in a match up against McMahon, while 10 percent defects across the aisle to McMahon, according to the poll.

The poll also points out there is a reverse gender gap where Murphy is up 20 points with women and McMahon is up seven points with men. In 2010, the gender gap was an issue for McMahon in her race against now U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal and may have contributed to her defeat.

The poll brought even worse news for Susan Bysiewicz and former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays who are hoping to win their parties endorsement Aug. 14.

“With the primaries two weeks away, it is nearly impossible for anyone but Murphy and McMahon to emerge victorious,” the PPP press release announcing the poll results states.

Shays’ favorability rating among Republicans are down from where they were a year ago, and he trails McMahon in a head-to-head match-up by 48 points. On the Democratic side Murphy continues to lead Bysiewicz by a smaller margin of 17 points.

The polls speculates Republicans are upset with Shays’ statements regarding McMahon if she emerges victorious on Aug. 14. New reports have said he wouldn’t support her, but the campaign says that’s not true and Shays respect the voters’ choice and will vote for her if she is the nominee. It goes onto surmise that Democrats are upset with Bysiewicz over her refusal to pull a misleading TV ad attacking Murphy.

McMahon’s campaign declined comment on the poll.

Shays’ campaign spokeswoman Amanda Bergen said that’s because the poll proves McMahon is still unelectable. She’s spent millions of dollars and her negatives have moved 1 percentage point since last year, Bergen said.

“She can’t make it over the hump,” Bergen said. “That’s why Karl Rove, who doesn’t always see eye-to-eye with Chris, is endorsing him because he knows he can win in November.”

In a hypothetical match up between Murphy and Shays, Murphy beats Shays 47 to 38 percent with 15 percent undecided, according to the poll. The poll shows Murphy beating McMahon 50 to 42 percent with only 8 percent of the voters undecided.

“With solid leads in both the primary and general Chris Murphy is likely to be the next Senator from Connecticut,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said.

Obviously the Murphy campaign would also like to believe that statement.

“This poll shows that more and more people across Connecticut know that Chris is the strongest candidate to take on McMahon’s million-dollar attack machine in November,” Taylor Lavender, a Murphy campaign spokeswoman, said.

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(8) Archived Comments

posted by: SocialButterfly | August 1, 2012  2:16pm

Don’t believe the polls.  Chris Murphy will not be able to defeat Linda McMahon, as Chris Shays will eliminate her in the Republican primary on August 14. And the fact that Pres. Barack Obama has a low 44% job approval rating—no President ever won an election with such a low job approval rating ever won a Presidency.  Which means Obama’s loss in the Presidency by Mitt Romney, will eliminate the coat-tail victory that Murphy would need to win the election. Chris Shays is the victor over Chris Murphy—as Obama will not bring in Murphy in his loss to Romney.

posted by: Dempsey Dem | August 1, 2012  2:33pm

HMM… Karl Roves endorses Shays?...Maybe because the Shays record in Congress shows that outside of election years, Shays voted with the Republicans over 95% of the time.  Couple with the story on the 40% drop in the WWE stock value, Linda may need the federal employee pension program.  Question:P…      what ever happened to the Sexy Bitch, Linda’s yacht?  Do they still own it, or at least have they changed her name?...

posted by: MGKW | August 1, 2012  3:47pm

The voters know it already….Murphy has her beat in all depts except one: money.

The debates ought to be entertaining…she does not have a script to read from so she has to try to think for herself…
WWE is family entertainment..Linda MacMahon on Bill O’Reilly.

posted by: ALD | August 1, 2012  6:26pm

MGKW,  Your correct. Murphy does have her beaten in all the ways that matter to the voters of this very Democratic state…..  That in no way means Murphy is anything more than another useless Democratic career politician from CT. He is part of the partisan problem.  So in his case we switch from Nancy Pelosi being our rep, to Harry Reid.

Sadly,  I agree with the polls, he will once again be elected to higher office simply because the Republicans couldn’t field anyone who could win an election to a high school student consul.

The foolish voters will think they are voting for positive change. I did once too. Following Chris Dodd, Joe Lieberman, and Dick (where’s the TV camera ), Blumenthal , it’s not hard to understand why.  All they will get is more of the same, and never question themselves why nothing ever gets better.

Of course since the Republican party in this state seems determined to make any Democrat including Murphy and Donovan look better than anyone they run, they have no one but themselves to blame.

Having said all that a vote for Linda has to be better than a vote for more of the same.

posted by: Sam Shore | August 1, 2012  8:42pm

Unless you’re a big donor, i.e. financial services or unions, don’t expect Murphy to give a damn about you.

posted by: MGKW | August 2, 2012  4:43pm

Sam Shore…
Bitter about Susan Bysiewicz she should get out now.

Gee whiz… I wish all voters were as smart as you…you really know what you are talking about( Riiiight!)

One thing:
Linda Mc$$$ is not morally or intellectually ready for the office….voters know what she represents’‘'she will not go above 45%....

posted by: SocialButterfly | August 2, 2012  8:09pm

MGKW: you deny Susan Bysiewicz and Linda McMahon, but boost the biggest loser, Chris Murphy? 

Put your money on Chris Shays—“who will win out in a blaze!”

posted by: SocialButterfly | August 5, 2012  3:13pm

The hypothetical matchup poll is not showing that Chris Malloy support is rising daily as Connecticut newspapers continue to endorse him.
Shays will continue “to move on in a blaze”—to a primary victory on August 14.

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